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mcjaco Beer Man
Joined: 20 Oct 2005 Total posts: 8779 Location: Chicago (Mundelein) Age: 34 Gender: Male |
 Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 6:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Satchboogie3 wrote: | | mcjaco wrote: | | Satchboogie3 wrote: |
I'd also like to see exactly who thinks a bunt is more skillful than hitting a 92mph fastball well enough to produce extra base hits. That's absurd. |
As someone whose been playing for 30 years. I do.
That's the problem with stats nerds. They think the game is easier than it is. |
Again I beg the question, if bunting requires more skill, then why do pitchers bunt? Heck, a lot people say hitting a 90+ fastball is the hardest thing to do in all of sports.
Lets just discuss this in a bit of detail. Bunting doesn't really require great mechanics, its all in how/where you hold the bat, the angle of the bat, and where you meet the ball. Your stance, power distribution, etc doesn't really matter. It's fairly easy (compared to hitting) because you let the ball come to you. When you are hitting, you are attacking the ball.
Hitting requires a lot more mechanics (and they are more important). Every little motion is greatly amplified when you are violently swing a bat (as hard and quick as possible) at the ball. Just being able to generate the power is difficult, you have to make sure you are using your full body (feet, legs, hip, etc) to generate power. On top of all of the mechanics, timing is extremely important. Remember, you aren't letting the ball come to you, you are attacking it. It is a LOT harder to "square" up on the ball when you are attacking it vs. letting it come to you.
I understand (and agree) that there is skill and mechanics to bunting, but calling it more skillful and harder than a good swing is ridiculous. Heck, the best hitters practice in the cage all the time, yet they still can easily get into a funk if just one little problem arises (mechanics, timing, hand eye coordination, etc). |
You're giving me a lecture of mechanics???? I am dead serious, I have been playing baseball for 30 years. I still play. I've played against, minor leaguers, ex-pros, Division A college players. Bunting requires just as much skill and "mechanics" as hitting.
Get in a cage that's throwing at 90 mph, and see if you can lay down a perfect bunt.
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| ParkTrips A tie for 1st Place = 3rd Place
Joined: 18 Aug 2005 Total posts: 6893 Location: Falling down 'the list' Gender: Male |
| Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:15 am Post subject: |
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| mcjaco wrote: | | As someone whose been playing for 30 years. I do. |
I agree. As to why bunt instead of swing away when it requires more skill?... Its more reliable. Even an all-star batter is going to get out 2/3 of the time, why not at least take the out and safely move the runner over?
| Quote: | | Heck, a lot people say hitting a 90+ fastball is the hardest thing to do in all of sports. |
Those people are nuts to think a fastball with a fairly predictable trajectory is easier than going up there and trying to hit pitches with 14" of break. In a batting cage? yeah, duh, the faster you crank the wheel the harder it will be to come around. But once you get adjusted to the speed, you can hit 120mph pitches. It will sting like hell with an aluminum bat, but the speed isn't super hard to deal with at all.
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Last edited by ParkTrips on Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:16 am |
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| BeemerBoy WDW Monorail Fanatic
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 Total posts: 4074 Location: North Georgia Age: 35 Gender: Male |
| Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 6:49 am Post subject: |
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There is nothing more enjoyable than watching a well executed squeeze play in a pressure situation.
And to further drive home the point, when it came to the climactic scene in one of the best baseball movies ever (albiet a comedy), what did the writers turn to? The typical walk off homer in dramatic fashion? No......it was a bunt.
Your honor, the defense rests.
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| Satchboogie3 Full Fledged Donkey Enthusiast!
Joined: 17 Sep 2007 Total posts: 384 Location: NH Age: 21 Gender: Male |
| Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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| ParkTrips wrote: | | mcjaco wrote: | | As someone whose been playing for 30 years. I do. |
I agree. As to why bunt instead of swing away when it requires more skill?... Its more reliable. Even an all-star batter is going to get out 2/3 of the time, why not at least take the out and safely move the runner over?
| Quote: | | Heck, a lot people say hitting a 90+ fastball is the hardest thing to do in all of sports. |
Those people are nuts to think a fastball with a fairly predictable trajectory is easier than going up there and trying to hit pitches with 14" of break. In a batting cage? yeah, duh, the faster you crank the wheel the harder it will be to come around. But once you get adjusted to the speed, you can hit 120mph pitches. It will sting like hell with an aluminum bat, but the speed isn't super hard to deal with at all. |
Hitting a 90+ mph fastball isn't hard because of the trajectory, it's difficult because of the timing. It's extremely hard to get around fast enough to make contact. Do you honestly think there isn't a correlation between a guy like Papelbon, who pumps 95mph fastball after fastball, and an extremely high strikeout rate? The best hitters on the planet have trouble hitting well placed 95 mph fastballs, even when they are looking for it.
And I'm not just talking about hitting a fastball, I'm just talking about hitting. Do you honestly think it is easier to get a hit off a Pedro Martinez (in his prime) than a bunt? That's insane. Making good contact at the major league level is incredibly difficult. Timing is one of the big reasons to that, as you said. Hitting a nasty curveball at 70 mph still isn't as difficult as hitting a 95 mph fastball... if you know it's coming. Breaking pitches are effective because they keep you off balance.
I mean, heck, statistics alone prove my point. What is the batting average or slugging against that top pitchers in the majors allow? It's not that high. In his career, Pedro averaged giving up 18 HRs per 162 game season, or 1 HR ever 47.7 batters. His career average batting against is .214, with .276 OBP and .337 SLG. What do you think is harder, getting a hit off a guy who only allows a .214 BA against, getting a HR when you have about a 1 in 48 (~2%) chance of success, or getting a bunt down?
This is absurd. There is a reason why players who suck at hitting, bunt, while those that can hit, don't bunt.
The other thing you have to realize is that bunt because it has a higher success rate does NOT automatically mean it gives you the better chance to score runs in the long run. Swinging away when you have less than 2 outs and 2 runners on will often lead to more runs scored than bunting them over into scoring position. You don't bunt because it increases your chance of scoring, you bunt because you have a guy at the plate who can't hit. Derek Jeter has faced tons of scenarios where other hitters might bunt, but Jeter doesn't (rare rare occasion he might). Why?, because he can hit.
Finally, even if bunting was more difficult than hitting, it would only hurt your argument. If bunting didn't have a great success rate, it would make it even less effective at producing runs. If a hit is easier to get than a bunt, why bunt? Makes no sense. Putting the ball in play via a swing obviously leads to more runs produces (and that's not debatable, that's fact) than putting a well placed bunt into play. Even if they were equal difficulty, it would make sense to bunt unless the player at the plate didn't have a chance in hell at getting a hit.
The object in baseball is to score runs. It doesn't matter how, just that you get runs. A lineup with good hitters will always score more runs than a lineup of hitters who need to bunt and play small ball to scrap together runs. You don't bunt because it's more effective or better than hitting, you bunt because you don't have the personel to be successful hitting.
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Last edited by Satchboogie3 on Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:40 pm |
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| Hercules The Resident Vegetarian Hippie
Joined: 15 Jun 2005 Total posts: 2337 Location: Harleysville/Philadelphia, PA Age: 25 Gender: Male |
| Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:39 pm Post subject: |
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^ Jeter attempted a sac bunt the other night. He struck out after 3 unsuccessful attempts. I guess he should have swung away. Oh no, wait, that is harder than bunting.
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| Satchboogie3 Full Fledged Donkey Enthusiast!
Joined: 17 Sep 2007 Total posts: 384 Location: NH Age: 21 Gender: Male |
| Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:55 pm Post subject: |
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http://blogs.chron.com/sportsjustice/archives/2008/04/bunting_is_bad_1.html
http://www.burntorangenation.com/2009/6/1/895218/on-the-subject-of-bunting
Good reads on why bunting is rarely the correct choice. The point of offense is to score runs. The most valuable way to do that is to NOT make outs, so why give up outs to produce runs? Doesn't make sense, and the math RARELY backs it up. The only real time to bunt is in the perfect situation in a game where you are down by 1 run and it's a must win game. Other than that, the only time you should bunt is if you have a pitcher up or a fast guy who can drag bunt for a base hit.
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| BeemerBoy WDW Monorail Fanatic
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 Total posts: 4074 Location: North Georgia Age: 35 Gender: Male |
| Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:04 pm Post subject: |
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Okay, first, I think we'd all like to see some proof that you've even stepped into a batters box just once in your life. I'm trying not to be rude here, but you're continuing to come off as the typical stat-spewing armchair athlete. Just sayin'.
Now to dissect the rest.
| Satchboogie3 wrote: | | Hitting a 90+ mph fastball isn't hard because of the trajectory, it's difficult because of the timing. It's extremely hard to get around fast enough to make contact. |
Not if that's in your everyday job description......which is what major leaguers are, um, trained to do.
| Quote: | | Do you honestly think there isn't a correlation between a guy like Papelbon, who pumps 95mph fastball after fastball, and an extremely high strikeout rate? The best hitters on the planet have trouble hitting well placed 95 mph fastballs, even when they are looking for it. |
The reason today's "fireball" closers are typically more effective is because they sit on their a$$ for 8 innings while the opposing lineup has 3 or 4 at bats against what is usually several different pitchers with different styles over the course of the game. And not that baseball is all that strenuous to begin with, but players *can* get tired by the ninth inning, and catching up with 95+mph heat is obviously slightly more difficult at that point.
| Quote: | | And I'm not just talking about hitting a fastball, I'm just talking about hitting. Do you honestly think it is easier to get a hit off a Pedro Martinez (in his prime) than a bunt? That's insane. |
Wait, so are the batters tipped off as to when a certain pitch will come while they stand in with the intention to bunt? You make it sound like it's tee ball whenever someone bunts.
| Quote: | | What do you think is harder, getting a hit off a guy who only allows a .214 BA against, getting a HR when you have about a 1 in 48 (~2%) chance of success, or getting a bunt down? |
Again, we're talking about consistently laying down a successful, well executed bunt. Yes, most big leaguers can stand in the box and put the bat on the ball for a bunt. But most can't do it effectively. That's the point.
| Quote: | | The only real time to bunt is in the perfect situation in a game where you are down by 1 run and it's a must win game. |
Being down a run is the perfect situation?
| Quote: | | Other than that, the only time you should bunt is if you have a pitcher up or a fast guy who can drag bunt for a base hit. |
Unless you're facing a Papelbon, who is throwing at a superhuman, unhittable 95mph, right?
Well, you got one thing right. You're inching closer to the Mendoza line.
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The Sports Thread was updated on 9-13 by special guest larrygator, with The U.S. Open Tennis Championships, at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.
If loving Tom Brady and Sabermetrics is wrong, I don''t wanna be right.
Last edited by BeemerBoy on Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:05 pm |
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| ParkTrips A tie for 1st Place = 3rd Place
Joined: 18 Aug 2005 Total posts: 6893 Location: Falling down 'the list' Gender: Male |
| Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Satchboogie3 wrote: | | Hitting a 90+ mph fastball isn't hard because of the trajectory, it's difficult because of the timing. It's extremely hard to get around fast enough to make contact. |
No, its not. Go to a batting cage. The major leaguers earn their money on placement, control, and movement. Not speed.
| Quote: | | Do you honestly think there isn't a correlation between a guy like Papelbon, who pumps 95mph fastball after fastball, and an extremely high strikeout rate? |
c'mon... almost all closers have high k/9 stats. Most batters only face a closer 4 or 5 times in the course of a season, unlike starters which a batter can face 4 times in a game.
| Quote: | | This is absurd. There is a reason why players who suck at hitting, bunt, while those that can hit, don't bunt. |
Yeah, ask Ichiro and Juan Pierre. Those guys can't hit for crap, that's why they drop down bunts to get on base.
| Quote: | | The other thing you have to realize is that bunt because it has a higher success rate does NOT automatically mean it gives you the better chance to score runs in the long run. Swinging away when you have less than 2 outs and 2 runners on will often lead to more runs scored than bunting them over into scoring position. You don't bunt because it increases your chance of scoring, you bunt because you have a guy at the plate who can't hit. |
Managers bunt because they know the odds.
A runner on 1st won't score on a single. A runner on 2nd has a much better advantage of scoring (hence the term runner in scoring position)
Swinging away with a runner on first brings a double play into play. The chances of grounding into a double play in this scenario is approximately 20%[*]. Bunting him over only costs one out, drastically reduces the chances of a double play, and gets the runner within a base hit of a run.
Bunting is totally situational, I'm not suggesting it be done every time someone gets on base, but its an effective way to produce runs. In playoff baseball time, that's pretty critical when you're only seeing a team's top 3 pitchers
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Last edited by ParkTrips on Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:22 pm |
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| Hercules The Resident Vegetarian Hippie
Joined: 15 Jun 2005 Total posts: 2337 Location: Harleysville/Philadelphia, PA Age: 25 Gender: Male |
| Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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In the 2006 NLCS, there were runners at first and second for the Mets. The pitchers slot came up in the batting order. Willie Randolph had 2 options - send up a hurt Cliff Floyd to swing away, or send Tom Glavine to the plate, one of the best bunting pitchers of all time, from off the bench. Hitting Glavine pretty much ensured that 2 runners would be in scoring position. This would have given a hot Jose Reyes an opportunity to drive in the winning runs. It also would have taken away the potential for the double play, so even if Reyes made an out Paul Lo Duca would have had a shot at it. Randolph went with Floyd, who struck out. Reyes hit a line drive out to the outfield. Lo Duca walked. Beltran struck out with the bat on his shoulder.
Would that not have been a good time to drop down a bunt?
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| BeemerBoy WDW Monorail Fanatic
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 Total posts: 4074 Location: North Georgia Age: 35 Gender: Male |
| Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:27 pm Post subject: |
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Your Red Sox are up one run on the Yanks in the bottom of the 8th. Ellsbury leads off with a walk. Pedroia lays down a bunt to advance a fast runner to second, and in scoring position, and in the process allows Youk to come up and hit without a potential double play. Now, the pitcher has to be concerned with the RISP, and the heart of the lineup at the plate.
Sounds like a good scenario to up the odds of a potential insurance run for Paps to work with in the ninth should someone miraculously make contact with his "unhittable" 95mph fastball and put it over the monstah, no?
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The Sports Thread was updated on 9-13 by special guest larrygator, with The U.S. Open Tennis Championships, at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.
If loving Tom Brady and Sabermetrics is wrong, I don''t wanna be right.
Last edited by BeemerBoy on Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:27 pm |
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